NFL Week 4 - Best Bets From the SI Gambling Team The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at SI's MMQB weigh in on their top best bet against the spread for Week 4 in the NFL. SportsPulse: Lorenzo's picks have been like clock work going 2-1 each of the first three weeks of the season. For Week 4 he gives his three locks hoping to finally have the perfect weekend.
We all got a bad beat last week, as the Bengals and Eagles worked to a pathetic tie after overtime. The score ended up being 23-23, of course falling 0.5 points shy of the Over I targeted in my safest NFL picks for the week.
I hate ties. Making it even worse was the fact that the Eagles punted with seconds remaining, basically accepting a tie instead of trying to advance the ball for a shot at a win.
The good news is the rest of our NFL locks panned out. The 49ers and Buccaneers dominated, and easily covered their respective point spreads. It gave us a solid 2-1 record on the week, which showed you to the green at your favorite online betting websites.
Let’s do it again in week four, as I break down my week 4 NFL locks.
The Saints are in uncharted territory. They’re 1-2, coming off a tough home loss to the Packers, and are now mild favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions.
Best Nfl Picks Week 4
Detroit deserves credit for getting a clutch win in Arizona last week, but they really shouldn’t be in this game with the Saints. One of these teams still has legit title aspirations, and it isn’t the Lions.
I expect Detroit to still be pesky here, but the Saints could be getting back to 100% with Michael Thomas potentially due back for this one.
Saints’ WR Michael Thomas (ankle) is eyeing a Week 4 return:https://t.co/kO5Tn65fn1
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 27, 2020
Even if Thomas isn’t back, New Orleans should be able to score at will in this matchup, and their defense can stifle Matthew Stafford and the Lions. I like the Saints to get a much-needed win to get to 2-2, and doing so by four isn’t a reach at all.
Minnesota Vikings (+4) -110
The Vikings and Texans face off this week, and both will be desperate to get their first victory of 2020 as they enter this matchup at 0-3.
I’m not sure anyone expected both of these teams to be winless through three weeks, but here we are. They’re both better than their records indicate, and they should bring it with their season’s hanging in the balance.
Minnesota offers nice value as an interesting upset pick here, while the Over (52 at -110) is also appealing in what figures to be a shootout. However, more than anything, I just anticipate this game being close.
Nfl Week 4 Best Bets
The Over is a fine secondary wager when you note the offense potential and lack of reliable defense. However, I like the Vikings as a potential underdog pick for week four, and the four points they’re getting here feels pretty sturdy at a nice -110 price.
Lastly, we can also probably feel good about the Cardinals covering against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is getting some credit here, as they’re at home and are coming off a win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
That’s fair, but this is still a pretty average team that doesn’t defend particularly well, and will continue to be without superstar running back, Christian McCaffrey.
Arizona committed too many turnovers in a surprising home loss to the Lions last week, but they’re better than that. I expect Kyler Murray to bounce back and play much cleaner football in an easy win.
The Cards feel like a lock to win and if you really want to go the safe route, you should be able to bet on them with confidence at their -190 price tag at BetOnline. They should cover this four-point spread, though, so getting a little more value with them at -103 to do that seems like the better play.
Philadelphia Eagles (+6) -110
I loved the 49ers last week, but that was against the New York Giants. The 0-3 Eagles seem just as bad on the surface, but they’re far more talented and better coached.
The reality is that the Eagles have the talent to be competitive, but they can’t get out of their own way. They should have won in week one, and they probably shouldn’t have tied the Bengals in week three.
San Francisco is the better team and they’ve been dominant in two straight wins. Unfortunately, those games came against two of the worst teams in football (Giants and Jets). They’re also incredibly banged up, and they’ll be hosting a desperate Eagles team.
Philly is a pretty good upset pick here, but I don’t think we need to take on that risk. I just like them to keep this one close.
There is a ridiculous amount of very high game totals this week. Normally that’s a wager I feel pretty good about attacking, but not in week four.
Are games featuring the Cowboys, Saints, and Packers probably going to hit the Over? Yeah, maybe, but when you’re dealing with totals starting at 55.5 and going up to 58, it’s just not a situation I’d deem safe.
Instead, stick with the three bets above, which qualify as my favorite week 4 NFL locks. These are some of the safest bets to target in week four, and should be part of a condensed betting slate if you want to profit this week.
Whatever you do, I wish you luck. Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the games!
Week 4 NFL
Sunday, October 4th
Click Here for the Latest Odds
Week 4 of the NFL season has plenty of value with teaser bets.
I have identified a teaser bet that is going to be a winner and it will put more money in your pocket.
7 Point - 7 Team Teaser: Arizona Cardinals +4 / Philadelphia Eagles +14.5 / Chicago Bears +10 / Browns v Cowboys O 49 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 / Ravens v Washington U 52.5 / Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 (+800)
The Cardinals have Kyler Murray and against a Carolina Panthers defense that has looked bad at times, he should have a field day. Getting the Cardinals as underdogs make a lot of sense.
The Philadelphia Eagles have struggled this season, but they get to face off against a banged-up San Francisco 49ers team. Nick Mullens will be under center for the 49ers, and if the Eagles can’t keep it within 14.5 points, it’s time for them to make some big changes on the team.
The Chicago Bears are the better team facing off against the Indianapolis Colts and Nick Foles is going to keep them in this game.
The Browns and Cowboys are both teams who have good offenses and don’t have a whole lot of interest in playing defense. Each of the Cowboys' last two games have had 69 points scored in, and there is no doubt that a lot of points will be scored in this one.
The Baltimore Ravens will probably try to put on a show in this game after what happened in the last game against the Chiefs, The offense is going to find success, but this is a defense that can lock down against bad teams. This is a Ravens squad that gave up only six points to the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have a better offense than the Washington Football Team and points are going to be hard to come by. There will be less than 52.5 points scored in this game.
I like the Jacksonville Jaguars to pull off the upset against the Cincinnati Bengals, but even if they can’t get that job done, this is way too many points. Gardner Minshew is a good quarterback and he is going to find success against a Bengals defense that has a lot of holes.
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Shane’s PickCardinals +4 / Eagles +14.5 / Bears +10 / Cowboys O 49 / Buccaneers -1 / Washington U 52.5 / Jaguars +9.5
Nfl Best Bets Against Spread
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.